## force of transition##
mort3<-read.table("3mort.txt",header=T)
mort<-read.table("shibouritu07M.txt",header=T)
x<-30:60
mu13<--log(1-mort3[1:31,2])
mu23<--log(1-mort[x+1,2])
mu21<-1-mu23
mu12<-hbe*1.25
#data.frame(mu12,mu13,mu23,mu21)
R<-rep(1.015,10)
e<-c(10:1)
Sum<-rep(0,1000)
S<-matrix(rep(0,10),10,1000)
for(j in 1:1000){
sick<-death1<-death2<-recover<-rep(0,10)
lx<-c(1000,rep(0,10))
for(i in 1:10){
u1<-runif(lx[i])
L<-rep(1,lx[i])
sick[i]<-sum((sign(mu12[i]*L-u1)+1*L)/2) @#@
death1[i]<-sum((sign(mu13[i]*L-u1)+1*L)/2) #NҎS
H<-rep(1,sick[i])
u2<-runif(sick[i])
p2<-mu21[i]/(mu23[i]+mu21[i])
recover[i]<-sum((sign(p2*H-u2)+1*H)/2) #
death2[i]<-sum((sign(u2-p2*H)+1*H)/2) #񌒍NҎS
lx[i+1]<-lx[i]-sick[i]+recover[i]-death1[i]-death2[i]
S[i,j]<-sick[i]*daysbe[i]
}
Sum[j]<-sum(S[1:10,j])
}
summary(Sum)
hist(Sum)
length(Sum[Sum>12236)
length(Sum[Sum>16307)
length(Sum[Sum>17180)
SORT<-sort(Sum)
SORT[977]
SORT[990]

#lx
#sick
#recover
#death1
#death2
#lx
#sum(sick)
#sum(death1)


